With the recent closing of the mass voter registration exercise, wild, unsolicited and unconfirmed figures are currently being bandied around. Both Jubilee and NASA sycophants have been shouting from the hill tops already claiming victory in the yet to happen general elections. The tentative registration totals as compiled by IEBC are not certified and should not be used to intimidate or scare opponents. You see, before IEBC announces the true results, a lot of cleaning up has to be done. Cases of double registration, errant registration and fraud have to be investigated and decided upon. Thus it would be only prudent for both political sides to be patient.

However, unlike Jubilee stalwarts who have remained very conservative in their estimates, NASA pundits have outdone themselves presenting ghost figures and claiming previously politically hostile counties. At the onset of the registration exercise, the NASA frontrunner for president Raila proclaimed that the election will be won at the end of the one month exercise. What he did not anticipate was the massive droves of new voters who turned out in Jubilee zones. This prompted him to shift tact and stick to his old card of ‘the election has already been rigged!’

According to IEBC, Jubilee zones averagely had better voter turnout across the country. NASA insiders revealed that the registration figures sent NASA back to the drawing board. The leadership agreed to delay the naming of a flag bearer and instead tour the country together popularizing their outfit. A new strategy was mooted where NASA was to focus on Jubilee counties it had a toehold in. They now have their sights trained on counties like Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River, Trans Nzoia, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok and Kajiado.

On paper this new strategy should send Jubilee panicking but a quick check beneath the surface reveals a glaringly different picture. The political arithmetic in Kenya is heavily dependent on ethnicity. How the devolved governments were formed and who they have benefited on the ground will also be a big factor as to how voters shall register their opinion. Clan rivalry amongst many communities will shape the outcome of this year’s general election. Immigrant communities and urban dynamics cannot be dismissed while tallying the score.

NASA’s ploy to scatter the Kalenjin vote has hit a dead end with the recent declaration that KANU will back President Uhuru’s re-election. NASA’s alleged point man in the Rift valley Governor Isaac Rutto has equally let them down by siding with the incumbent. In retaliation, to NASA’s upbeat offense, The Deputy President William Ruto has spearheaded a ruthless foray into the opposition zones capturing political knights, bishops and castles leaving NASA extensively wounded.

 

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